Economists Remain Optimistic about Utah
Beehive State remains a top-five state nationwide for population growth and employment growth, with prognosticators anticipating another solid year of economic activity in the A/E/C and real estate markets in 2025. By Milt Harrison
Despite some minor economic headwinds, Utah is poised for another solid, if semi-unspectacular, year of construction and real estate development, according to top economists locally and nationally.
Indeed, 2025 is shaping up to be much like 2024, a year where firms across the A/E/C spectrum completed dozens of life-enhancing, community-uplifting projects across every major building sector—in other words, a lot of projects were built outside of the still churning multi-family market. These firms thrived for the most part, posting positive revenue growth and maintaining momentum in the face of the usual challenges of shallow labor pools and volatile material costs.
Utah continues to rank among the top states nationally on key economic drivers such as population growth, construction employment, a pro-business climate, and a legislative body that continues to be bullish on funding higher education and transportation projects. Prospects are good with a can-do mentality among developers, municipalities, and the firms designing and building the jobs.
"Utah will continue to have above average growth and is in great position to continue its great track record with a growing population, and a strong economy and construction market," said Ken Simonson, Chief Economist for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGCA) in Washington, D.C. "Utah has been on a steady, strong upward path with 27% growth in construction employment—three times the national average of 9%—since 2020."
Simonson said Utah's construction employment growth doubled last year, up 6%, which is twice the U.S. average. Growth would be even stronger, he added, if contractors could find workers, particularly skilled tradesmen. Simonson said a survey of 1,500 firms nationally stated 94% had openings for craft workers. "It's hard to fill (skilled) positions, more difficult than last year," he added.
Utah's consistent population growth—the Beehive State ranked fourth according to the U.S. Census from 2023-24 with 1.8% growth (3.44 million to 3.50 million)—is a driver of demand for so many types of construction, as well as a course of construction labor. Simonson said the state has been more welcoming of immigrants, an important source of labor for contractors across the board. Utahns also have a reputation for being well-educated coupled with a strong work ethic and drive to succeed, making the state an attractive place for new businesses looking to expand.
Developers Waiting Out Interest Rates; Hope for a Drop in '25
The Fed kept interest rates where they are in January—a decision not popular with many real estate developers simply itching to invest capital and have projects waiting to cut loose the minute rates become more favorable. That pent-up demand could heat up the market if rates drop by even half a point, particularly in the multi-family arena.
Simonson said multi-family was down nationally 8% from September 2023-24, with Utah seeing an equivalent slowdown, despite a huge amount of inventory that hit the market in 2024, including attractive high-end downtown properties like Camber, The Worthington, and Astra Tower, and many others along the greater Wasatch Front.
"Reductions in the [Fed]’s short-term interest rate target will make financing a bit less expensive but developers still can't get loans or want to proceed if rents aren't high enough to cover the financing and construction costs, including time to complete if there are extended delivery times for electrical equipment such as transformers and switchgear," Simonson added. "Utah isn't immune from these challenges, but if the underlying population growth will be supportive of rent increases, that may bring back multi-family construction sooner than in areas that aren't growing as fast, or at all."
Spendlove Keynote at 2025 NAIOP Symposium
Senior Economist for Zions Bank, Robert Spendlove, said Utah is well-positioned to maintain solid economic activity, with factors of low unemployment (hovering around 4%), solid wage growth (3.9% in December), and more than a quarter million jobs added at the end of last year.
"Utah had unexpected, continued strength in the labor market," said Spendlove at NAIOP Utah's 2025 Symposium in January. "If we could pause the economy and stay where we're at now, we'd be in a perfect position."
Consumer inflation, he said, remains sticky at nearly 3%, with the Fed targeting 2% before they can lower interest rates. "Until it's at 2%, they can't claim victory," he said. Overall, consumer prices are up a whopping 22% since 2020. "It's a struggle for people—those prices are never going back down. Inflation is just adding to those price increases. [Fed Chair Jerome] Powell said they will not make the same mistake as the 70s; they will not cut rates until inflation is down."
In addition to strong 1.65% [WHAT TYPE OF] growth and 1.8% employment growth, Utah rebounded quickly from the pandemic.
"That shows the strength of Utah's economy and labor market," said Spendlove. He added that Utah's GDP was up 4.6%, indicating the strongest economic growth in the U.S., with consumer sentiment improving and greater small business optimism.
Utah Maintains Steady Growth, Says Eskic
The Beehive State's remarkably consistent and steady growth remains a major reason why its economic outlook remains rosy, said Dejan Eskic, Senior Research Fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah.
"Utah's population growth has never dropped below zero since 1950—we're still increasing with net migration," said Eskic at an event hosted by the Intermountain Chapter of the American Concrete Institute in January, with growth slowing by only .08 to 1.65%
"There is so much demand in our economy that even in a down year for housing, construction employment is up 6.2%," he said. "The American household, on average, has never looked better on paper when looking at financial stability," with 70% of household debt tied to mortgages. Living in Utah is still expensive, even though the state is now listed as the 10th most expensive state to live in, down from 8th. "It doesn't mean Utah is more affordable, other states are just more expensive."
The housing crisis will remain among the biggest challenges, both with affordable housing and overall number of units that need to be built. Governor Spencer Cox has made his intentions known that communities need to prioritize ways to address all housing issues, with a desire to see tens of thousands of single family homes built in the next decade.
Way easier said than done, simply because developers cannot be expected to be altruistic when market conditions are competitive and profit margins potentially volatile and risky. He expects rents to increase once absorption is reached.
Other items of note:
—Consumer Price Index dipped to 2.6%, where it is expected to stay.
—Expect growth in wages and employment.
—Commercial construction will be primarily flat, similar to the last two years.
—Office is flat, medical and industrial markets will continue to grow; industrial may be dictated by international trade.
—Utah expects to add 500,000 people in the next decade, and will need a jaw-dropping 275,000 more housing units in that time, primarily along the Wasatch Front.
"We need to change the dialogue if we're going to solve the housing crisis," said Eskic. "Currently, 92% of renters are priced out of the market. Construction must be optimized."

Commercial office is not dead. The market is alive and well, according to the design pros at HB Workplaces team. Their new office and showroom in Draper, and what it has done for employees and clients, is a case in point. All it took was a change in scenery. Transitioning from the B'Nai Israel Temple, built in 1890, to a new space was a welcome change for the team. "I just remember working between 2015 and 2020, and it was just," Keilian Meyer trailed off as he described the former office, a historic religious building converted into an office and showroom in 1987. Minimal natural lighting, rooms and layouts misaligned for team needs—their space wasn't bringing out anyone's best work. Meyer, Marketing Director for HB Workplaces, said going to work didn't engender a sense of engagement. "It was kind of punch in and punch out." But everything coalesced with their move. "The timing aligned perfectly," Meyer said of the June 2024 move and their rebrand from the year before from Henriksen/Butler to HB Workplaces. Dual Purposes Come to Life It aligned with every real estate broker's favorite word: location. Planting the HB Workplaces flag in the award-winning Baltic Pointe made perfect sense, especially with its epicenter locale between the booming economies of Salt Lake and Utah counties. HB Workplaces CEO Dave Colling summed it all up succinctly: "Our new headquarters is not just another building; it's a statement of our appreciation and stewardship of design, built upon decades-long heritage of our own, along with MillerKnoll, underscoring our commitment to excellence." The mass timber ceilings in HB Workplaces' first-floor office in Baltic Pointe—the first of their kind for a commercial building in Utah—are part of that commitment. Everything seems warmer, healthier, and better under the all-lumber ceiling. "We've always been drawn to inspiring architecture, and the natural warmth and intentionality of this structure made it a natural fit," said Meyer. HB Workplaces sought to make their mass timber home a showpiece for the beautiful and wide-ranging possibilities of today's commercial interiors, serving as an office for the HB Workplaces team and a showroom for interior designers and architects looking to envision their next project. That dual nature comes through perfectly across the space, with the showroom piece especially highlighted in the "Living Room" and its 382 SF of mid-century modern glory. The unforgettable Eames Lounge chair catches the eye, but closer inspection reveals some nods to the B'Nai Israel Temple's stained glass windows and other homages to the deep histories of the Herman Miller and Knoll brands. The room's mid-century-style lounge chairs, couches, ottomans, and side tables—all MillerKnoll line, of course—combine with gentle lighting to create the perfect spot for hosting. Brit Badger, HB Workplaces' VP of Client Development, explained how the Living Room is ideal for getting to know their design partners and clients, especially for a first meeting. "It's not all the same seating everywhere, like it would be at a conference room," she explained of how the varied seating choices—the Nelson Coconut Lounge Chair is often first dibs—help to create a relaxed and comfortable environment. "It's cool to see who chooses what. It's a fun way to start."

Bragging about a “C+” might seem gauche, but Utah is one of only four states to earn that high a grade, according to the May 28 release by the Utah Section of the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) of the 2025 Report Card for Utah’s Infrastructure. The cumulative “C+” for the Beehive State is the highest mark ever given by ASCE to any individual state—the report card itself spans 12 categories of infrastructure and is virtually unchanged from 2020 (ASCE issues report cards every four years). Utah's grade is also one step higher than the national infrastructure average grade of “C” in the ASCE 2025 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure, which dropped in March. Roads (B+) and Bridges (B) remain the stars of the class, as the Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) continues to receive consistent state funding in furthering its aggressive program of building new projects to meet ongoing demand, while diligently maintaining existing infrastructure. “Our transit and transportation are doing fabulous," said Anna Lisonbee, President of ASCE Utah and an Engineer-in-Training at South Jordan-based Hansen, Allen & Luce. “UDOT and UTA are lauded as some of the most efficient [organizations] nationwide, so we’re doing very well in that category.” Aviation infrastructure was the only category to see a grade increase—somewhat predictable given the sheer amount of capital investment made over the past decade at Salt Lake International Airport, Provo Airport, and other regional airports statewide. Three categories—bridges, s tormwater, and transit—saw grade decreases. The remaining eight categories held steady from 2020. "Utah is one of the fastest-growing states in the country, and state leaders have taken steps to ensure the reliability of infrastructure systems as more people move here to enjoy Utah's thriving communities, amazing outdoors, and high quality of life," said Craig Friant, Utah Civil Practice Lead for South Jordan-based Wilson & Company and Chair of the 2025 Report Card for Utah's Infrastructure. Utah grades per category: Roads: B+ Bridges: B Drinking Water, Solid Waste, Transit: B- Aviation, Dams, Hazardous Waste: C+ Stormwater, Wastewater: C Canals: D+ Levees: D-

"What gets you out of Egypt doesn't take you to the promised land." The quote, as I first heard it, came from Ron Dunn, Founder of Salt Lake structural engineering firm Dunn Associates. While he was talking about the differences between founding and growing a company, the same principle holds true in developing a robust transportation infrastructure. In other words: "What got us here will not take us there." What has taken us here has been development dedicated to personal vehicles and last-mile freight—a stellar network of roads and highways from massive investments in horizontal construction. But what will get us "there" to the promised land? What will bring us to a future where Utahns can have the freedom to move without a car? Unified Plan for a Connected Utah? We'll certainly wander in the West Desert without a plan. Lucky us, we have hundreds of agreed-upon proposals across metropolitan planning organizations, cities and towns, counties, and even the Utah Department of Transportation. The Beehive State's guiding document toward long-term transportation plans, whether for cars or not, is found in the Utah Unified Transportation Plan, also known as the Unified Plan. The visionary document aims to prioritize funding across multiple transportation options and give residents choices, ranging from personal vehicles to mass transit and active transportation. Residents and metropolitan planning organizations across the state have added their input to further unify the state's trajectory. Key in Utah's Unified Plan, as documented, is analyzing and ultimately determining how transportation projects in Utah should be funded between 2023 - 2050. With projected needs across that timeline estimated at $153 billion in today's dollars, current revenue sources generating just under a projected $95 billion, and future revenue streams projected to generate just over $18 billion, we're going to be short. But where is that money going? Most often, it's funding roads. According to the Unified Plan, transportation needs from road capacity, maintenance, preservation, and operations project at a whopping $110 billion between 2023 - 2050, with a $29 billion funding gap in revenue. Funding future mass transit capacity ($14.8 billion) and operations ($19.8 billion) over the next 25 years costs a fraction of the projected costs for roads and highways. It's an apples-to-oranges comparison, admittedly, as massive funding for highways and freeways has created so much, but where do state priorities lead? Budget at a Glance Utah continues to tread the asphalt and concrete highway to prioritize highway funding. UDOT's FY2026 funding document shows $2.5 billion in funding. Estimated Transportation Investment Fund (TIF) expenditures, primarily used for improving or optimizing capacity, are projected at $1.2 billion. Within the TIF, Class B & Class C Roads, county roads and city streets, respectively, will receive $261 million, Highway Systems Construction $205 million, and Operations/Maintenance $254 million. It makes sense when $883 million in projected revenue for FY2026 comes from user-based fees, permits, and gas tax revenues (set to be 40 cents per gallon in 2026). On the other hand, UDOT-funded mass transit receives a bulk of its budget from the above-mentioned Transportation Investment Fund—35% of the index fuel tax sales tax goes into the Transit Transportation Investment Fund. For FY2026, transit and commuter rail projects will receive $103 million. John Gleason, UDOT's Sr. Public Information Officer, said there is a major shift happening within UDOT over the last decade-plus to give some "gas" to other forms of transportation. "All transportation is important to us. For every project we undertake, we are looking at the different components across all modes—cars, transit, bikes, trails," Gleason said. "We need to keep an eye on how the entire transportation system can function across the state." The words and shift in priorities are welcome, but what "Keeps Utah Moving", will not be more highway lanes or highway construction that receives the lion's share of transportation funding. Utah highways, like those in so many other states, are the victims of induced demand. The phenomenon is a matter of economics. For vehicle transportation, each lane added, highway developed, or road widened helps to expand capacity on these newly modified transportation corridors. However, expanding capacity does not mean solving traffic concerns. While capacity expands, more people are "induced" to use these freshly expanded corridors, lanes fill back to capacity, and commutes return to their sluggish nature. This never-ending quest to meet our transportation needs is set to play out again on I-15. UDOT is set to add another lane on I-15 from Farmington to Salt Lake, and do so at a multi-billion-dollar price tag. Surely this lane will be "The One" that fixes the traffic problem on Utah's busiest transit corridor? Utah may still be adjusting to roundabouts, but will we ever get out of this circle?

Standing atop the now-tallest building in Utah—the dynamic 451-foot, 680,000-SF Astra Tower in downtown Salt Lake City—Lance Shields was succinct in describing the otherworldly, 360-degree views available from the 41st-floor rooftop patio. “Pretty amazing, isn’t it?” mused Shields, a Principal with Salt Lake-based HKS Architects and one of a half-dozen architects on HKS’ team who contributed to the design of Astra Tower, which features 377 total units, two levels of penthouse suites, and more than 40,000-SF of top-shelf amenity space. Peering southeast to majestic views of the Wasatch Mountains, Shields referenced the striking cantilever structure gracing the building’s southeast corner—a concession that preserved the breathtaking view by eliminating what would have been a structural column. Adding this approximately $2 million change to the bottom line only further illustrated the owner’s desire for a world-class luxury apartment tower. “The uninterrupted views of the valley are really breathtaking at the top floor and is the one thing that visitors I have taken through the project consistently comment on as the best experience they have had,” said Shields, adding that it would have been easy to justify a column in that corner. “I have to hand it to the vision of our team and the owner to see the value of the views and taking steps to preserve it.” Indeed, Boston-headquartered Kensington Investment Company (KIC) had been eyeing the Salt Lake market since 2017, ready to make a splash. In 2018, it purchased the site once home to Carl’s Jr. and hired HKS in 2019 to get the ball rolling on the design side. The pandemic forced KIC to pause its timeline, with construction formally kicking off in January 2022, led by Salt Lake-based Jacobsen Construction. “We were taking an enormous risk and writing a massive check while making sure we had as many people with experience on our team as we practically could,” said Ed Lewis, CEO of KIC. “We asked ourselves if Salt Lake City was ready for this kind of product—with no [like-building comparisons] to look to—while making the project financially successful. Putting together the capital stack with no comps in the state, and ensuring the team knew what they were doing, was challenging.” Engagement with the community was a priority from the start, said Shane Rensmon, President of Real Estate Development for KIC, as was finding local A/E/C firms with the moxie to take on a unique hybrid design-build project of this magnitude, a delivery method “not common in Salt Lake City, but common across major markets,” he said. “Ownership wanted to utilize local consultants and vendors as much as possible to get the community involved and engaged with the project, which presented new challenges in designing and constructing Astra Tower,” said Rensmon. “We leveraged [KIC’s] skills and experiences to help guide the design and construction teams on issues that they have not seen before or had little to no experience in.” Hotel-like Vibe with Unmatched Amenities Emir Tursic is no stranger to massive projects, having cut his teeth in the hospitality realm as a draftsman-turned-project architect for HKS on Block A of the enormous $10 billion MGM City Center project in Las Vegas from 2007-2008, which included the 61-story, 600,000-SF Aria Hotel. “It was a project I grew up very quickly with,” recalled Tursic, Office Director for HKS’ Salt Lake office, who ended up managing part of the project before it ended. “After this, I could go to the moon and not be scared of anything.” Even amidst the challenges for Tursic and his team, Astra Tower proved to be one of the most exciting, generational opportunities in the realm of world-class residential high-rise design that—ho-hum—also sets a record as the state’s tallest-ever building. “We wanted to create a sustainable urban community that focuses on wellness and sustainability,” said Tursic. “Sustainability is not just about energy and carbon footprint, it’s also [about] health and wellness and the environment. We have this huge amenity program—40,000 SF of indoor and outdoor amenities space focused on physical and mental health.” Tursic said dispersing major amenities across three building levels was a key functional design consideration. Level 8 kicks things off with an expansive club lounge that includes a demonstration kitchen and entertainment area, a state-of-the-art fitness center where views overlook Gallivan Plaza, a remote office space with a conference room and meeting rooms, and what Tursic calls “The bonus space”—an expansive 10,000 SF outdoor urban park. “Instead of a roof on top of the eight-story parking structure, we created a space with an outdoor lawn, hammocks, fire pits, grills—it’s a great social space for Astra’s residential community,” he said. Level 23 includes the outdoor pool and indoor spa, highlighted by a wellness center, steam room, sauna, recovery spas, treatment rooms, and private locker rooms. The pool deck overlook offers excellent views of the Oquirrh Mountains to the west. Level 41 tops the amenity spaces—literally—with an outdoor kitchen, entertainment area, and a spacious outdoor viewing deck that looks down on Salt Lake’s adjacent tallest buildings. “We wanted to provide a variety of experiences,” said Tursic. “The 41st floor is meant for quiet and solitude.” ROAM Interior Design of Los Angeles provided interior design on every level. "With Astra Tower, we set out to design interiors that reflect both the soul and natural beauty of Utah, infused with the energy of modern city living," said Deanne Teeter, Design Director at ROAM. “Every amenity—from the tranquil spa on the 23rd floor to the rooftop lounge with panoramic views—is intentionally crafted to foster wellness through biophilic connection and a true sense of home in the sky." “Astra Tower was purposefully designed to exemplify KIC's commitment to o perating market-leading apartment buildings, featuring state-of-the-art amenities and an unwavering dedication to service excellence,” said Joe Bird, Vice President of Real Estate Development for KIC. “This intentional design ensures an unparalleled living experience, blending sophisticated facilities with exceptional resident-focused service to set a new standard for urban residential excellence in Utah.”

First. Best. Leader. These are some of the many positive ways people described the late Marshall White, the civic hero and namesake of Ogden's past and future community centers. Marshall White is remembered as the first black police officer in Utah killed in the line of duty after being fatally shot in 1963. Equally important was his dedication to other causes outside of police work: the loving father of seven children; veteran and military doctor who helped establish a clinic at Hill Air Force Base post-WWII; youth mentor who partnered with the Elk's Club to establish the Wall Avenue Recreation Center; President of the Ogden chapter of the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People. Marshall White embodied community, and the original Marshall White Community Center, constructed five years after he died in 1968, was its physical manifestation. The building became a safe haven for youth, especially those with darker skin and different ethnicities from those of Utah "pioneer" ancestry, to learn to swim, take art classes, and participate in sports. But as time passed, the building fell into disrepair as Ogden's population shrank from the 1970s through the 1980s. Structural issues in the building appeared before a crack in the pool grew into a metaphorical chasm as COVID and its effects further disconnected society. Ogden needed champions who would follow in White's footsteps to bring people together, and create a space that would continue his community-building legacy. New Center; Relit Community Beacon Salt Lake-based VCBO was hired in 2020 to evaluate the old facility and propose future alternatives. It began, as VCBO Principal Brent Tippets described, "to replace a failing pool and building. […] It quickly became apparent that this community revolved around the Marshall N. White Community Center as both a gathering space and a historical icon for all minorities and people of humble circumstances." "Budget is always a challenge, but perhaps meeting all the affected parties' expectations was more so," said Tippets. "What was originally a pool and gymnasium replacement became a versatile destination with a plethora of participation options. He and the VCBO team worked with an Ogden City-appointed steering committee of passionate residents who provided valuable input on the importance and utilization of recreation and community spaces. "The Mayor, City Council, and City administration were committed to funding the project at the required level to achieve the grander vision for the facility," said Tippets. The Ogden City Council initially set aside $18 million and later increased the budget to $32 million for a new, 68,900-SF community building, doubling the size of the previous structure. Construction Challenges But challenges arose as soon as excavation commenced. Construction teams led by Vernal-based BHI encountered a dark, organic-looking soil that was previously undiscovered in geotechnical test borings. The surprise soil raised immediate concerns due to its lack of stability and reliability in compaction. BHI's history as an industrial contractor, where safety and lightning-fast communication are treasured, escalated the soil problems immediately. They collaborated and aligned with ownership, geotechnical engineers, and designers amidst evolving conditions to create a plan. Instead of utilizing native soils as initially planned, excavation teams removed the unsuitable material and imported structural fill from Ogden and nearby Plain City to meet compaction and bearing requirements, all while maintaining oh-so-important project momentum. "Working with Ogden City involved a different set of communication and coordination protocols than our typical projects," said BHI Superintendent Scot Marrot. "There was a greater emphasis on public transparency and adherence to specific city regulations. However, it was incredibly fulfilling to collaborate with the city officials who were passionate about providing a valuable resource for their community. The partnership fostered a strong sense of shared purpose and pride in the final outcome."